Possible scenario
Managed Tight Restart
45% Chance
Beijing allows the approved October export restart to go ahead while keeping the annual refined-fuel quota at 36.5 million tons. This is the most likely outcome because it balances domestic supply management, refinery utilization, and regional pressure from record Asian gasoline margins.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.