Possible scenario
Additional Quota Top-Up
25% Chance
China’s commerce and customs authorities add a small late-year quota after seeing domestic inventories build and regional prices remain high. This would signal a less restrictive stance than the headline quota cut initially implies.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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