Possible scenario
Race Barely Changes
30%
0.0%
The endorsement is symbolically important but arrives too late to materially alter voter preferences. Existing partisan alignment, absentee ballots already cast, candidate favorability, and spending by party committees remain more important than a single high-profile endorsement.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.