Possible scenario
Yemen War Attrition
20% Chance
The attack could damage morale and logistics for the Yemeni government offensive without producing a decisive Houthi breakthrough. The conflict would remain violent but largely localized, with limited immediate implications for global markets unless external targets are hit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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