Possible scenario
Mediation Regains Traction
27% Chance
The high death toll and risk of broader escalation push Oman, the UN, and possibly the United States to revive a de-escalation channel. This does not resolve the war, but it could produce a limited pause or prisoner arrangement if all sides want to avoid a wider Saudi-Houthi confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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