Possible scenario
Infrastructure Campaign Intensifies
23% Chance
Russia follows the Kyiv metro disruption with further strikes on electricity, district heating, and rail infrastructure before winter. This would be a material escalation within the existing war, but not yet a regime-level shock unless it spills into NATO territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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