Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
27% Chance
Ukraine uses the latest Kyiv attack to press allies for faster deliveries of Patriot interceptors, NASAMS missiles, and radar systems. The recent Patriot deal makes this path credible, but inventories and domestic politics limit how quickly support can expand.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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