Possible scenario
Infrastructure Strike Escalates
30% Chance
The Houthis follow warnings with a successful strike on Saudi aviation or energy infrastructure. Given recent attacks on Riyadh airport, Yanbu Aramco assets, and fatalities at Saudi airports, markets price a higher risk premium for Saudi airspace and Gulf oil flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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