Possible scenario
Contained Airspace Disruptions
38% Chance
Houthi drone threats continue to disrupt Saudi aviation, but most devices are intercepted before causing damage. Riyadh keeps Jeddah and western Saudi air corridors open with temporary holds, diversions, and tighter air-defense patrols.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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