Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
25% Chance
Oman, Qatar and European governments press Washington and Tehran to avoid a wider Gulf conflict. Even a limited pause in tanker attacks would likely remove part of the oil risk premium because markets have rapidly priced in escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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