Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Conflict
45% Chance
Iran and aligned groups keep pressure on Gulf shipping, but the confrontation remains mainly maritime. The US, Gulf states and commercial shippers adapt through convoys, rerouting and higher insurance costs rather than a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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