Possible scenario
Baltic Economic Retaliation
18% Chance
The EU and G7 respond to the nuclear deployment with sanctions, export controls, and transit scrutiny rather than military action. Russia may retaliate economically against Lithuania, Poland, or Baltic shipping, but both sides try to avoid a full blockade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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