Possible scenario
Arms Control Channel
20% Chance
The United States, Russia, and key European governments use military-to-military and OSCE channels to reduce miscalculation around Kaliningrad. This path does not reverse the deployment, but it creates procedures for notifications, flight safety, and nuclear-risk signaling.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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