Possible scenario
PA Fractures Violently
25% Chance
The alliance turns Abbas's succession crisis into an armed contest inside Fatah and the Palestinian Authority security services. Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and the United States prioritize preventing Hamas and Islamic Jihad from gaining West Bank footholds, increasing the risk of raids, closures, and broader unrest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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