Possible scenario
Abbas Contains Challenge
35% Chance
Mahmoud Abbas, backed by key Fatah security chiefs and parts of the Palestinian Authority bureaucracy, survives the immediate challenge. Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Mohammed Dahlan expose Abbas's vulnerability but fail to convert the alliance into control over West Bank institutions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Tickers
- ESLT+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.