Possible scenario
Gaza Ceasefire Unravels
25% Chance
The pace of Israeli commander killings convinces Hamas that the ceasefire no longer protects its military network. A larger cycle of rocket fire, tunnel raids, and Israeli ground incursions follows, putting the January 2025 deal under severe strain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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