Possible scenario
Contained Targeted Campaign
45% Chance
Israel continues intelligence-led strikes against Hamas brigade leadership while avoiding a full return to large-scale ground operations. Hamas remains degraded and chooses selective retaliation rather than actions that would immediately collapse the ceasefire framework.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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