Possible scenario
Democratic Coattails Grow
42% Chance
Buttigieg's endorsements become part of a broader DNC, DCCC and DSCC push to convert a favorable national environment into actual seat gains. His profile with younger, suburban and college-educated voters helps Democrats in districts where turnout margins are decisive, especially in the Midwest, Sun Belt suburbs and New England.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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