Possible scenario
Limited Belarus Basing
45% Chance
Moscow and Minsk formalize a limited basing arrangement for conventional ballistic missiles, likely framed as defensive integration under the Russia-Belarus Union State. The most probable path is a controlled deployment meant to threaten western Ukrainian logistics while avoiding a direct NATO trigger.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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