Possible scenario
Belarus Delays Agreement
25% Chance
Belarus avoids an immediate formal basing deal, likely seeking greater Russian subsidies, security guarantees, or political control over the deployment. This outcome preserves ambiguity while reducing the near-term risk of new launch sites on NATO’s eastern flank.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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