Possible scenario
Bill Advances Anyway
40% Chance
Hochul and Democratic leaders continue pressing for a bill narrowing New York's voluntary-intoxication defense in sex-crime cases. The Community Note becomes a messaging problem, but not enough to derail the policy push given the Cornell investigation and broader public-safety framing.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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