Possible scenario
State Enforcement Expands
25% Chance
New York's lawsuit becomes a template for other state attorneys general and gaming regulators that view prediction markets as unlicensed gambling. Federal protection remains contested, creating a fragmented market where Kalshi has an advantage from its CFTC-regulated status but still faces operational uncertainty.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- ICE-0.6%
- DKNG+0.5%
- FLUT+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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