Possible scenario
Investigations Intensify
30% Chance
The poll strengthens incentives for Congress to broaden existing insider-trading and influence investigations. The most market-relevant line of inquiry would connect Donald Trump’s reported crypto windfall, the ended FBI bribery probe into Susan Collins, and potential misuse of confidential government information.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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