Possible scenario
Election Issue Escalates
20% Chance
Corruption becomes a closing argument in competitive 2026 races, particularly after earlier scandals involving the Supreme Court, congressional trading, crypto gains, and Justice Department intervention. The likely effect is more political volatility than policy certainty, with markets reacting mildly to heightened headline risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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