Possible scenario
US-Israel Fallout
20% Chance
Because the victim is the son of Israel's ambassador to the United States, the incident quickly becomes a US-Israel political issue as well as a security matter. The Biden or successor administration condemns the attack while also pressing Israel to prevent settler retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.