Possible scenario
Oil Facilities Hit
30% Chance
The Houthis continue to prioritize Saudi oil and airport infrastructure, testing whether Riyadh can protect critical processing and export nodes. Even limited damage would reinforce the risk premium in crude and pressure travel-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.