Possible scenario
Contained Summit Disruption
40% Chance
Saudi authorities keep the summit functioning, but most Western oil executives remain away from Riyadh while security is tightened around airports and Aramco sites. The raids remain a reputational and logistical blow rather than a sustained supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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