Possible scenario
Sisi Retains Influence
25% Chance
Sisi formally leaves the presidency but preserves decisive authority through a new constitutional role, a security council chairmanship or influence over the ruling party and armed forces. This would disappoint investors hoping for a clean succession but would not necessarily imply immediate instability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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