Possible scenario
Elite Competition Unrest
20% Chance
The announcement starts an extended succession contest among the armed forces, intelligence services, business networks and pro-government parties. Open rupture remains less likely than managed continuity, but the period before 2030 creates space for elite bargaining and localized unrest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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