Possible scenario
Trump Doubles Down
18% Chance
Trump refuses to abandon his Russia energy-ceasefire and export framework, arguing that sanctions would undermine negotiations with Moscow. That deepens the split with congressional hawks and creates a more volatile policy mix for oil, defense, and risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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