Possible scenario
Negotiated GOP Compromise
42% Chance
House Speaker Mike Johnson and the White House cut a face-saving deal that preserves most Pentagon funding while adding a Russia-related enforcement mechanism. This is the most likely path because neither House Republicans nor Trump want to own a disruption to defense spending during an active Ukraine-Russia escalation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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