Possible scenario
Germany Blocks Restart
30% Chance
Germany and the European Union may reject a restart because of sanctions, Ukraine policy, infrastructure damage, and domestic political opposition. This would keep the talks from becoming a near-term supply event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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