Possible scenario
Alliance Backlash Escalates
20% Chance
Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, and some members of Congress could frame the discussions as a strategic concession to Moscow. The result would be diplomatic friction and a higher probability that sanctions policy becomes more contested.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.7%
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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