Possible scenario
Retaliation And Talks
20% Chance
Saudi Arabia and the United States increase military and diplomatic pressure on the Houthis after the alert, while backchannel talks continue through Oman and the UN. The outcome hinges on whether the response is calibrated or becomes another exchange of fire.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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