Possible scenario
Interceptions Continue
32% Chance
The Houthis continue periodic missile and drone launches toward Riyadh or other Saudi cities, but Saudi air defenses prevent major damage. This fits the recent pattern of repeated attacks followed by interceptions and short-lived civil defense alerts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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