Possible scenario
Chip policy hardens
30%
−1.7%
The espionage allegation becomes a catalyst for hawks in Congress and the Commerce Department to revisit Trump’s earlier permission for Nvidia H200 sales to China. This would be a sector-level shock because it threatens a concrete revenue channel for U.S. AI-chip makers.
What it moves
- Technology−2.7%
- Market volatility
- US dollar
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