Possible scenario
US-China AI Escalation
20% Chance
The investigation becomes part of the broader US-China AI confrontation, especially around remote inference, data access, and model export controls. This would increase policy uncertainty for US and Chinese AI companies ahead of bilateral talks.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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