Possible scenario
Contained Compliance Case
40% Chance
China's internet regulator treats the Anthropic routing allegations as a data-compliance breach rather than a strategic national-security incident. DeepSeek and Moonshot AI face corrective orders, disclosures, and possibly modest penalties, but their core model operations continue.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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