Possible scenario
Sanctions Reduced
25% Chance
A plausible alternative is that the appeals court agrees the lawsuit was weak but finds the sanction amount or rationale too broad. This would give Trump a partial procedural win without reviving the full $10 billion case.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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