Possible scenario
Right Wins Government
36% Chance
The most likely election path is a Partido Popular win driven by fatigue with Pedro Sánchez, the housing-plan defeat, the Morocco naval-breach admission, and visible street anger. Alberto Núñez Feijóo either governs with outside Vox support or forms a formal right-wing cabinet, producing a modest risk-on reaction in Spanish-exposed assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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