Possible scenario
Parliament Deadlocks
24% Chance
The election may produce a fragmented Congress in which neither PP-Vox nor PSOE-Sumar-regionalists can form a government. This would extend caretaker rule, delay budgets, and keep the housing and Morocco controversies unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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