Possible scenario
Street Confrontation Widens
18% Chance
The jailing of 'Cockroach' protest leaders becomes a rallying point and pushes the dispute from the courtroom into broader civil disobedience. The probability is lower than legal de-escalation, but the scale of the alleged voter purge makes rapid mobilization plausible in major cities and opposition-run states.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Finance -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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