Possible scenario
Purge Largely Proceeds
32% Chance
The Supreme Court allows the Election Commission process to continue while asking for compliance reports and clearer grievance channels. This outcome preserves institutional deference to the ECI but leaves opposition parties arguing that practical disenfranchisement is already occurring.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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