Possible scenario
Managed Stalemate
40% Chance
China and the European Commission keep talking, but Beijing's offer remains framed around dialogue rather than enforceable cuts to subsidized production. The EU maintains its Chinese-made EV duties while asking for verifiable data on capacity, exports and state support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- STLA+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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