Possible scenario
Broader Rebalancing Package
15% Chance
China broadens the talks beyond EVs and signals measures to narrow its trade surplus with the EU. This includes import commitments, procurement access or capacity-management steps in sectors where Europe has been pressing for relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.2%
- Industrials +1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.