Possible scenario
Sanctions And Diplomacy
25% Chance
Washington and London respond primarily through law enforcement, sanctions, expulsions, and intelligence disclosures. This path is plausible because both governments can punish the alleged IRGC network without immediately risking a military exchange with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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