Possible scenario
Contained Security Reset
45% Chance
The most likely path is a force-protection response rather than a direct military escalation. US European Command, the RAF, and UK counterterror police keep bomber movements dispersed while hardening access controls and continuing prosecutions tied to the alleged IRGC plot.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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