Possible scenario
Harris Stands Down
42% Chance
Harris ultimately decides not to mount a third presidential campaign, with Doug Emhoff’s opposition reinforcing concerns about family strain, donor fatigue, and the difficulty of rebuilding after the 2024 loss. She remains active in Democratic politics through endorsements, fundraising, and issue advocacy from California.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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