Possible scenario
Exploratory Bid Falters
25% Chance
Harris does not immediately reject another run and quietly assesses fundraising, staffing, and polling. Emhoff’s opposition becomes one factor behind a cautious, low-commitment effort that struggles to overcome doubts from Democratic donors and strategists.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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