Possible scenario
Targeted Sanctions Push
25% Chance
The headline adds political momentum for targeted accountability measures against Russian officials, prison authorities, military commanders and occupation administrators. The measures are likely to be narrow rather than economy-wide, limiting cross-market effects.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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